‘Where’s the growth going to come from?’ is the question that many people are asking. 2023 ended having dipped into recession, momentarily at least, and with forecasts not being too flattering (indeed they are more flat lining) for 2024, it presents uncertainty as the PM prepares to take the country to the ballot box later in the year (surely not May?).

My assessment is that, for the markets we work in at Ashfield Land and for the value we’re trying to build in the long term, there are reasons for optimism.

While access to capital, planning risk and other factors may constrain others in the market, we’re seeing an increasing trend in what I call a ‘flight to certainty’. Namely vendors seeking out a reliable party and getting deals done.

To give an example, we’re seeing a growing number of vendors seeking an outright sale, very much our market, where they can exit immediately instead of committing to longer-term conditional agreements. After all, you can’t spend hope/promises. It’s a pragmatic approach and, at Ashfield Land, it’s one we’re experienced in and have long advocated. As one of my colleagues puts it ‘you get a result on Day One’ – and when planning and development can often be seen as long-term play, that can be a big attraction.

As I write this, I’m mindful that we’re seeing a huge upswell in the politics of planning – witness Mr Gove and the recent plethora of pronouncements from DLUHC – as well as the rising rhetoric of housing. It’s a general election year so that figures. The Chancellor will also be setting out his Budget (6 March), and everyone is grappling with the combination of policy, economy and broader market forces. There are plenty of things we could all potentially get tangled up in if we’re not careful.

I’m not into making predictions but my assessment is that, whoever gets the keys to Number 10, we will certainly see an uptick of effort across planning and development. But the fact of the matter is that any government will be constrained by what it has to work with and, even post-election, by what its voters will allow. For all of these reasons, I expect a degree of ‘business as usual’ across the land and development markets for the near term, taking me back to my main point which is whether to stick or twist when it comes to land value capture.

Other conversations regarding interest rates, cost of capital, green belt release and the ability of the planning system to perform are all interesting and relevant. But the biggest question for a landowner wanting to unlock value from his or her asset is how do I make that happen in a way that works for me?

Increasingly we’re in discussions with vendors who see the ‘result on Day One’ as exactly what works for them.

Some people may suggest that ‘thinking in decades’ is the right way to achieve anything significant or worthwhile. I disagree when it comes to doing the best land deal.

We all want growth and we’re all ready for an upturn. My opinion is that the key to growth is in making decisions. We’re ready and able to do that and to transact.

Decisions make things happen. Decisions unlock value.

If that’s something that resonates with you, please get in touch.